当前位置: 首页 > 学术活动 > 正文
Fast anthropogenic environmental change can cause the collapse of fishery ecosystems
时间:2025年05月15日 21:12 点击数:

报告人:原三领

报告地点:数学与统计学院105室

报告时间:2025年05月18日星期日16:00-17:00

邀请人:范猛

报告摘要:

Recreational fisheries, often recognized as fishing activities undertaken by individuals for sport and leisure, can be conceptualized as integrated systems where changes in human activities have significant implications for the interconnected components of the fishery ecosystems. These systems often exhibit nonlinear dynamics and are susceptible to abrupt and irreversible shifts in function and structure, referred to as critical transitions. Most existing studies on critical transitions in fishery ecosystems focus on the magnitude of changes in fishing practices. In this study, we examine a recreational fishery model that incorporates the prey and its predators, both of which are subject to fishing by anglers. Our analysis demonstrates that the fishery ecosystem is sensitive not only to the magnitude of changes in fishing pressure but also to the rate at which these changes are implemented. Surprisingly, a slow increase in fishing pressure, even when aiming for a relatively high fishing target, can sustain the prey fish stock at a sustainable biomass level. Additionally, we identify critical thresholds for the rate of increase in fishing pressure for different initial population sizes and accordingly assign warning levels to these values. Furthermore, to evaluate the risk of rate-induced tipping, we introduce two key concepts: tipping time and rate-tipping probability, where the latter is defined as the proportion of initial conditions that induce rate-tipping relative to the total number of selected initial conditions. Interestingly, we find that as the rate of parameter change increases, the tipping probability first increases rapidly, then slowly, and finally saturates, while tipping time decreases gradually, that is, the increase of $\lambda$ accelerates the collapse of prey population. Our study offers valuable insights for fisheries management decision-making, not only emphasizing the importance of considering the magnitude of management adjustments but also highlighting the temporal dynamics of implementing these changes to achieve desired outcomes.

主讲人简介:

原三领,上海理工大学教授,博士生导师,中国数学会生物数学专业委员会副主任。研究方向为:微分方程与动力系统、生物数学。曾先后主持多项国家自然科学基金面上项目和上海市项目的研究工作。研究内容涉及微分方程与动力系统、种群动力学、流行病动力学、海洋生态学以及生物化学工程等诸多领域,具有多学科交叉的特点。曾多次受邀到国内和国际多所高校进行合作研究和学术交流。已在SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics、Journal of Mathematical Biology、Journal of Differential Equations等国内外重要学术刊物上发表SCI论文150余篇。

©2019 东北师范大学数学与统计学院 版权所有

地址:吉林省长春市人民大街5268号 邮编:130024 电话:0431-85099589 传真:0431-85098237