This work applies a novel geometric criterion for global stability of nonlinear autonomous differential equations generalized by Lu and Lu (2017) to establish global threshold dynamics for several SVEIS epidemic models with temporary immunity, incorporating saturated incidence and nonmonotone incidence with psychological effect, and an SVEIS model with saturated incidence and partial temporary immunity. Incidentally, global stability for the SVEIS models with saturated incidence in Cai and Li (2009), Sahu and Dhar (2012) is completely solved. Furthermore, employing the DEDiscover simulation tool, the parameters in Sahu and Dhar’model are estimated with the 2009–2010 pandemic H1N1 case data in Hong Kong China, and it is validated that the vaccination programme indeed avoided subsequent potential outbreak waves of the pandemic. Finally, global sensitivity analysis reveals that multiple control measures should be utilized jointly to cut down the peak of the waves dramatically and delay the arrival of the second wave, thereinto timely vaccination is particularly effective.
会议ID:822707347
刘志军,男,湖北民族大学数学与统计学院院长、二级教授,四川大学兼职博士生导师,美国《数学评论》评论员。以第一作者或通讯作者发表SCI检索论文40余篇,目前主持在研国家自然科学基金面上项目1项,主持完成国家自然科学基金地区项目、教育部科学技术研究重点项目、中国博士后科学基金、湖北省自然科学基金各1项。获得湖北省自然科学奖三等奖1项(排序第二)。