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L\'evy Processes for Jumping Growth of Spiny Lobsters, Panulirus Ornatus.
时间:2026年04月13日 14:37 点击数:

报告人:王友干

报告地点:人民大街校区数学与统计学院四楼会议室

报告时间:2026年04月15日星期三10:30-11:30

邀请人:白志东

报告摘要:

The discontinuous moulting process in crustaceans poses fundamental challenges for growth modelling and can yield biologically implausible estimates of asymptotic size under traditional continuous-growth frameworks such as the von Bertalanffy curve. We develop a stochastic growth model that jointly characterises the moult increment (MI) and intermoult period (IP) through a unified convolution-based likelihood. Individual growth is represented by a constrained L\'evy subordinator, which enforces monotone but discontinuous size trajectories by modelling MI as a beta-type jump process with biologically realistic support, while IP is described by a gamma generalised linear model. This construction delivers a joint likelihood for MI and IP, permitting maximum likelihood estimation and profile-likelihood inference for parameters governing both the size and timing of moults.

In an application to tank data on \emph{Panulirus ornatus}, we compare several plausible jump and waiting-time distributions and find that the beta-based L\'evy model provides a substantially better fit than gamma or inverse Gaussian alternatives, while yielding von Bertalanffy-type population summaries compatible with current stock-assessment practice. A simulation study confirms that the proposed estimators recover key growth characteristics and reproduce the observed stepwise trajectories under realistic sample sizes. By embedding biologically constrained increments and intermoult timing within a L\'evy-process framework, the model offers a flexible tool for analyzing discontinuous growth in crustaceans and related biological systems, and illustrates how modern jump processes can be adapted to inform fisheries management.

主讲人简介:

王友干(You-Gan Wang)教授,1991年在英国牛津大学获得统计学博士学位,历任美国哈佛大学副教授、新加坡国立大学副教授、澳大利亚联邦科学院首席科学家、澳大利亚昆士兰大学应用统计数学首席教授澳大利亚凯思林大学统计科学家。王教授在世界顶级统计期刊发表了200余篇文章(包括 biometrika, biometrics, jasa, annals of statistics等顶级统计期刊),谷歌学术引用量已超过 7600 次。在多个数学统计类研究领域均有着卓越的成就,做出了突出的贡献,是公认的世界级著名统计学家。研究兴趣包括: 稳健推断,纵向数据分析,教育学和水文学统计模型,资源估计与管理战略评估,相关性数据分析中的模型选择。他还是biometrics ,environmental modelling and assessment, electronic journal of statistics 等期刊的副主编。

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